The New 2025 March Madness Guide
This year, instead of just giving you March Madness picks, I have developed a guide to show you the model's output in percentaIges for each game slot in the tournament. This guide will have a twofold purpose:
- To show more detail on the model's results.
- To give you more information in making better decisions for your picks.
Let's face it, your picks are your picks. You can take my picks, tweak them some, and you have your own unique picks tailored to your thoughts and experiences.
How does the Guide work?
The guide lists the percentages of teams winning the game slots from the Round of 32 to the Champion. There are up to two teams listed for the Round of 32 and the Sweet Sixteen, and up to 3 teams listed for the Elite 8 to the Champion. For example, in the picture above, in the West Region Final Four slot, Iowa St. has a 39.6% chance of winning, Purdue 19.3% and Florida 18.7% - according to the model.
Why Are The Percentages Not What I Am Expecting?
The percentages may not be what you are expecting. The Elite 8 may have Auburn at 98.6% winning that slot. The actual real life percentage may be 84%. The model's pre-conditioning data and the criteria that the model uses may skew results more in some teams favor. But, if you went with the actual real life percentages, you would end up with a pretty much "chalk" bracket.